This workshop series (SamPred) is funded by the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation (Riksbankens Jubileumsfond) and led by Prof. Pontus Strimling, Prof. Kimmo Eriksson, and Prof. Christofer Edling, and will run throughout 2025 and 2026.
The ability to predict future outcomes is a cornerstone of science. However, in the social sciences, such predictions are rarely made. This may be due to the complexity of social phenomena but also the lack of common frameworks for systematic testing and evaluation of predictions.
This research initiative aims to develop principles and methods for a more future-oriented social science. While perfect predictions are impossible, incremental improvements could provide substantial value for both research and policymaking. The project unfolds in two steps. First, Swedish researchers from various social science disciplines will identify key prediction targets and promising methodological approaches. Second, an international symposium will expand the perspective, bringing together leading scholars to contribute to a final report shared with the research community.
By establishing a framework for formulating, testing, and publicly sharing predictions, we aim to create the foundation for a more systematic predictive social science. This is a crucial step in enhancing the field’s relevance and impact in a rapidly changing world. Ultimately, the project serves as the basis for a future application for a more comprehensive research program on social science predictions.
The workshop series consists of three cross-disciplinary workshops with Swedish researchers and one International symposium that will be held in Stockholm in May 2026.
Are you a researcher in the social sciences and want to take part?
We are currently conducting a survey to gather expert opinions on which social science outcomes are most valuable to predict. If you are a researcher in the social sciences, we would greatly appreciate your input. The survey is fully anonymous and takes about 2–4 minutes to complete. You find the survey here.
Participating Swedish researchers:
Anna Dreber, Professor of Economics at the Stockholm School of Economics
Armita Törngren Golkar, Associate Professor of Psychology at Stockholm University
Christina Garsten, Professor of Social Anthropology at Uppsala University and Principal and Permanent Fellow at SCAS
Christofer Edling, Professor of Sociology at Lund University
Fredrik Liljeros, Professor of Sociology at Stockholm University
Hernan Mondani, Associate Professor of Criminology and researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies
Irina Vartanova, Associate Professor of Psychology at Uppsala University and researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies
Kimmo Eriksson, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Mälardalen University and researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies
Martin Kolk, Associate Professor of Demography at Stockholm University and researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies
Moa Bursell, Associate Professor of Sociology at Mälardalen University and Research leader at the Institute for Futures Studies
Pontus Strimling, Professor of Analytical Sociology at Linköping University and Research leader at the Institute for Futures Studies
Staffan I. Lindberg, Professor of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg
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